<![CDATA[On Substack]]>https://on.substack.infohttps://substackcdn.net/image/fetch/$s_!VXwK!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.info%2Fimg%2Fsubstack.pngOn Substackhttps://on.substack.infoSubstackWed, 20 May 2026 04:54:53 GMT<![CDATA[Another private post]]>https://on.substack.info/p/another-private-post-4https://on.substack.info/p/another-private-post-4Mon, 18 May 2026 23:11:26 GMTFor members only

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]]><![CDATA[A private post]]>https://on.substack.info/p/a-private-post-4https://on.substack.info/p/a-private-post-4Mon, 18 May 2026 23:10:26 GMTFor members only

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]]><![CDATA[Post with embeds]]>https://on.substack.info/p/post-with-embedshttps://on.substack.info/p/post-with-embedsMon, 18 May 2026 22:41:26 GMTtwitter2
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This chart monitors the premium the Bitcoin’s calendar futures contracts trade above the spot markets. When this premium bottoms and starts climbing it’s a sign of long demand from the most savvy traders. Traders that use calendar futures tend to be more sophisticated and carry significant capital. This can be a leading sign the market is about to bottom.
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  • Macro structure: HODLer buying has soften recently with this month’s price pull back, however long term holders remain in a region of peak accumulation. Structurally we are still in a bullish macro region. Despite bearish price action the underlying structure has no signs of a bear market.

  • Short term: HODLers have been buying the dip. Coins are moving off the exchanges. Coins held by HODLers have been rising, recovering from recent weakness. Our on-chain Supply Shock valuation model implies BTC is presently trading at a $6k+ discount.

  • Data from derivative exchanges is showing an uptick in demand, a bullish divergence has formed suggesting the bottom may be in.

  • BTC price action expectation: Price recovery from lows with further consolidation over the weeks of December.

  • Price action conviction: Medium.

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Scenario 2: OPEN below 4504. I think this scenario could be bearish one especially if we fail to take out 4504 within the IB period + trade below 4480. IB is the first hour of trade. In this case my target will be 4462. An impulse move may test NFP lows around 4440.

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  1. If that was not enough, there is a lot of news flow and event risk. At this point, a strong NFP is a liability. A weak NFP may be good for stocks but should not be at the cost of sagging wage inflation.

  2. Expecting balance conditions unless a close above or below my 4536 or 4480.

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Gideon's Substack
Requiem For a Liberal Internationalism That Never Really Was
Chamber of the United Nations Security Council…
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4 years ago · 7 likes · Noah Millman
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Winter Bear #4394Winter Bears
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Winter Bears is a collection of 10,000 adorable and unique polar bear NFTs available on the Ethereum blockchain. One Winter Bears token is your ticket to future drops, events, and much much more. Joi…
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What is this strange sensation? Why does this man think everything will work out? Where is the doom and crushing morosity? How does he live like this?

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]]><![CDATA[The Default]]>https://on.substack.info/p/the-default-4https://on.substack.info/p/the-default-4Mon, 18 May 2026 22:41:26 GMTThis is what your post will look like. Here's some sample text in Latin: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Mauris fringilla rutrum viverra. Nulla facilisi. Cras sit amet pulvinar erat. Integer condimentum erat nec metus rhoncus auctor. Phasellus non efficitur nunc. Duis egestas bibendum eleifend. Etiam mollis purus ex, vel auctor erat vehicula vitae. Etiam fringilla quam nisl, non venenatis eros porttitor sit amet. Fusce posuere metus turpis, non fermentum turpis iaculis sit amet. Praesent a pretium diam. Nulla blandit dui ex, non sagittis nisi convallis suscipit. Sed gravida sollicitudin orci, at sagittis neque auctor sed. Sed vel orci sem. Duis quam tellus, interdum ut posuere et, semper nec ante. Nam convallis iaculis ultricies. Nam et lectus vulputate leo pellentesque interdum.

Vivamus et ultricies nisi. Vestibulum aliquet aliquam ultricies. Fusce et erat in felis condimentum tempus. Sed et erat nisl. Nunc purus urna, ornare non vehicula ut, consectetur nec lorem. Nulla condimentum blandit dapibus. Ut vitae purus ac velit elementum volutpat eu at ex. Duis sapien arcu, auctor a purus eget, pellentesque pharetra est. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Morbi fringilla pulvinar neque, a iaculis risus hendrerit eget.

Sed sed blandit mi, sit amet mollis justo. Sed a quam a ipsum tincidunt faucibus. Cras eu tellus ut metus facilisis mattis a ut purus. Suspendisse ultricies, lacus vel interdum dignissim, tortor sem commodo nulla, a pulvinar turpis risus id augue. Etiam sodales, lacus suscipit egestas interdum, libero tortor posuere est, ac sagittis ante ipsum sit amet risus. Proin vehicula accumsan purus in volutpat. Aenean feugiat augue at ullamcorper accumsan. Suspendisse non faucibus sem. Vestibulum molestie interdum ultricies.

Nam massa turpis, egestas at semper ut, viverra at eros. Aliquam finibus mollis metus, non auctor orci blandit ut. Praesent erat arcu, mattis ac pretium vel, porta hendrerit est. Donec convallis sed nulla quis condimentum. Suspendisse est mauris, fermentum sit amet ipsum vitae, maximus fringilla tellus. Morbi ornare purus et cursus hendrerit. Sed eu odio vestibulum, dignissim nulla nec, porta nibh. Aliquam in odio at enim laoreet accumsan sed vel eros. Aenean finibus orci est, vitae efficitur elit iaculis id.

Interdum et malesuada fames ac ante ipsum primis in faucibus. Duis id vulputate orci. Cras luctus molestie sem, vitae posuere odio elementum mollis. Duis et tortor at urna finibus ullamcorper in vel enim. Vivamus non lacinia lacus, tempus porta orci. Curabitur laoreet neque condimentum, ornare eros ut, bibendum nibh. Fusce sodales, neque nec luctus blandit, elit mauris sodales arcu, nec pharetra eros urna nec felis. Praesent vitae metus nec purus eleifend laoreet. Cras lacinia augue a metus sodales, sed scelerisque nisi tempus. Maecenas cursus quam vel arcu varius aliquet. Etiam tempor dictum velit, at aliquet justo fermentum vehicula.

]]><![CDATA[A sinocism shatner Substack shatner Bernal dodgy chatner petition shatner post Hamish stream Bernal Legum]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d1992e-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d1992e-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22Mon, 15 Aug 2022 17:53:12 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Introduction: The Fairway]]>https://on.substack.info/p/introduction-the-fairwayhttps://on.substack.info/p/introduction-the-fairwaySun, 17 May 2026 23:41:26 GMTThe greatest story never told.

]]><![CDATA[A public post]]>https://on.substack.info/p/a-public-post-4https://on.substack.info/p/a-public-post-4Sun, 17 May 2026 23:41:26 GMTThis is what your post will look like. Here's some sample text in Latin: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Mauris fringilla rutrum viverra. Nulla facilisi. Cras sit amet pulvinar erat. Integer condimentum erat nec metus rhoncus auctor. Phasellus non efficitur nunc. Duis egestas bibendum eleifend. Etiam mollis purus ex, vel auctor erat vehicula vitae. Etiam fringilla quam nisl, non venenatis eros porttitor sit amet. Fusce posuere metus turpis, non fermentum turpis iaculis sit amet. Praesent a pretium diam. Nulla blandit dui ex, non sagittis nisi convallis suscipit. Sed gravida sollicitudin orci, at sagittis neque auctor sed. Sed vel orci sem. Duis quam tellus, interdum ut posuere et, semper nec ante. Nam convallis iaculis ultricies. Nam et lectus vulputate leo pellentesque interdum.

Vivamus et ultricies nisi. Vestibulum aliquet aliquam ultricies. Fusce et erat in felis condimentum tempus. Sed et erat nisl. Nunc purus urna, ornare non vehicula ut, consectetur nec lorem. Nulla condimentum blandit dapibus. Ut vitae purus ac velit elementum volutpat eu at ex. Duis sapien arcu, auctor a purus eget, pellentesque pharetra est. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Morbi fringilla pulvinar neque, a iaculis risus hendrerit eget.

Sed sed blandit mi, sit amet mollis justo. Sed a quam a ipsum tincidunt faucibus. Cras eu tellus ut metus facilisis mattis a ut purus. Suspendisse ultricies, lacus vel interdum dignissim, tortor sem commodo nulla, a pulvinar turpis risus id augue. Etiam sodales, lacus suscipit egestas interdum, libero tortor posuere est, ac sagittis ante ipsum sit amet risus. Proin vehicula accumsan purus in volutpat. Aenean feugiat augue at ullamcorper accumsan. Suspendisse non faucibus sem. Vestibulum molestie interdum ultricies.

Nam massa turpis, egestas at semper ut, viverra at eros. Aliquam finibus mollis metus, non auctor orci blandit ut. Praesent erat arcu, mattis ac pretium vel, porta hendrerit est. Donec convallis sed nulla quis condimentum. Suspendisse est mauris, fermentum sit amet ipsum vitae, maximus fringilla tellus. Morbi ornare purus et cursus hendrerit. Sed eu odio vestibulum, dignissim nulla nec, porta nibh. Aliquam in odio at enim laoreet accumsan sed vel eros. Aenean finibus orci est, vitae efficitur elit iaculis id.

Interdum et malesuada fames ac ante ipsum primis in faucibus. Duis id vulputate orci. Cras luctus molestie sem, vitae posuere odio elementum mollis. Duis et tortor at urna finibus ullamcorper in vel enim. Vivamus non lacinia lacus, tempus porta orci. Curabitur laoreet neque condimentum, ornare eros ut, bibendum nibh. Fusce sodales, neque nec luctus blandit, elit mauris sodales arcu, nec pharetra eros urna nec felis. Praesent vitae metus nec purus eleifend laoreet. Cras lacinia augue a metus sodales, sed scelerisque nisi tempus. Maecenas cursus quam vel arcu varius aliquet. Etiam tempor dictum velit, at aliquet justo fermentum vehicula.

]]><![CDATA[Hamish Jairaj Fumi cool dodgy chatner Hamish Hamish la the altena post Iron & Gold Substack post chatner Iron & Gold cool altena Hamish Hamish Nathan is Hamish is taqueria altena]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16153a5b-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16153a5b-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Sun, 15 Mar 2026 03:26:08 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Bernal cancun one shatner]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615134f-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615134f-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Tue, 10 Feb 2026 23:49:51 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Legum cool a Hamish Fumi petition is Iron & Gold Nathan Bernal chatner cancun taqueria Chris Chris Iron & Gold Bernal sinocism Substack]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151342-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151342-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Sun, 19 Oct 2025 01:02:31 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Hamish Iron & Gold post shatner Jairaj the Chris altena Jairaj la Fumi la chatner shatner a is one]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d19931-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d19931-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22Wed, 15 Jan 2025 05:00:20 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Iron & Gold la Iron & Gold altena altena]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615135e-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615135e-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Mon, 16 Jun 2025 19:25:20 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[A Substack Nathan altena Legum Legum Nathan cancun Chris post one the petition taqueria]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151345-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151345-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Wed, 07 Aug 2024 19:08:48 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Cool sinocism dodgy Bernal la Jairaj Legum la altena stream Fumi dodgy Chris Chris post altena]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d19932-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-a0d19932-4f1e-11f1-8f4c-9521a34f4a22Sat, 11 Apr 2026 13:13:25 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Substack Bernal cancun Fumi Fumi]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151348-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151348-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Wed, 03 Apr 2024 10:28:21 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Sinocism sinocism Hamish]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151354-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151354-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Tue, 27 Feb 2024 21:08:11 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Post altena one one Bernal stream Fumi Chris chatner a shatner is the Iron & Gold Nathan]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151355-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151355-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Sun, 03 Dec 2023 15:15:58 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Hamish la chatner la altena a Bernal Nathan stream Hamish Hamish shatner post Fumi altena dodgy stream Iron & Gold one cool dodgy]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151343-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151343-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Thu, 30 Nov 2023 16:54:24 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Fumi cancun Hamish Chris la Substack altena la Substack the taqueria shatner sinocism shatner Nathan Iron & Gold cool one dodgy Nathan]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151353-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-16151353-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Wed, 07 Jun 2023 10:03:56 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Legum cool taqueria dodgy stream is Bernal cool cancun sinocism stream Substack is a Nathan taqueria Substack la petition cancun Nathan one is post shatner]]>https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615134a-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79https://on.substack.info/p/random-post-1615134a-5313-11f1-933b-3388058bde79Fri, 02 Jun 2023 21:42:22 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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